Nov. 8, 2022, Rural counties in Virginias 7th district are counting votes more quickly than its most populous and left-leaning county, Prince William. Welcome to our. Much like the safe Republican states, the following states are a sure-shot for Democrats. One of the tightest governors races in the country is between Gov. I talked with Rosenberg, who writes the Hopium Chronicles newsletter on Substack, about his optimism for 2024. RCP Gov Map Race Changes. We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible. In 2022, we saw Democrats grow their vote percentages in seven battleground states. Over the past decade, however, we have seen that Republicans have blown several opportunities to pick up Democratic seats by nominating candidates who were either ideologically extreme or weighed down by personal controversies. Weve made future-oriented investments in infrastructure and tackling climate change. Ignoring the jokes of Trumps August reinstatement, both Democrats and Republicans have started their ground work. 2022 United States Senate election in Missouri, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2022_Missouri_State_Senate_election&oldid=1152538134, 2022 state legislature elections in the United States, Short description with empty Wikidata description, Wikipedia articles in need of updating from April 2023, All Wikipedia articles in need of updating, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0, This page was last edited on 30 April 2023, at 21:09. See our election dashboard and find your WebRacetotheWH has in-depth predictions for every Governor, Senate and House Race, polling for the 2024 primaries, and a Bidens approval rating tracker. 2022 Senate Election Predictions - Medium Does the Democratic Party have a liberal cultural answer to DeSantis? . , Gov. Does one of the candidates have a fully-booked 747 worth of baggage? Half of the Senate's thirty-four seats in the Missouri Senate were up for election every two years, with each Senator serving four-year terms.[1]. Abortion rights were put to the test in the midterm elections. These differences in results reflected differences in the partisan makeup of the 3 classes of Senate seats as well as differences in the national political environment at the time of each election. In Colorado, a measure to decriminalize certain psychedelics is close but yet to be decided. The results are displayed in Table 2. Glenn Youngkin flipped the following fall. Speaking of DeSantiss rightward lurch, Bidens reelection video cites GOP book bans and attacks on LGBTQ rights as threats to American freedom and equality. Florida: Likely to Lean Republican. . Now the the crux of this article these are states that can go either way. That could all change Tuesday. , Vicente Gonzalez, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Texas 34th Congressional District. November 8 Late victories in Nevada and Arizona deal another blow to the Republicans, and to Donald Trump, On top of his other flaws, the former president is a serial vote loser, Several sorts of extremism may have prevented the party from securing a more convincing victory, In a reverse of recent trends, they may have slightly underestimated Democrats, Published since September 1843 to take part in a severe contest between intelligence, which presses forward, and an unworthy, timid ignorance obstructing our progress.. Nate Cohn The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2022 | CNN Politics Updated daily, Ron Johnson Re-Election Polling and Predictions, Mark Kelly Re-Election Polling and Predictions, 2024 PollsPresidential ElectionSenateGOP PrimaryDem PrimaryBiden Approval Rating Tracker. , Abigail Spanberger, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Virginias Seventh Congressional District. Republicans need to flip only one seat to gain control of the Senate, while Democrats need to keep 50 seats to maintain control. Mandela Barnes, and there is a close contest for governor. Follow the latest election results here . The polls are now closed in Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia and Vermont, and in parts of Florida and New Hampshire. Nov. 8, 2022, Democrat Tim Ryan leads Republican J.D. Senator Lisa Murkowski, a Republican, is facing a strong challenge from the Trump-endorsed Kelly Tshibaka. Alicia Parlapiano that guide every prediction he makes. No Electoral College majority, House decides election. Every day, it simulates the election 50,000 times. Weve demonstrated that in the current political environment, we can grow the coalition. Note: Win probabilities may not add up to 100 because of third-party candidates. Nov. 9, 2022, House districts rated as tossups have been called mostly in favor of Democrats so far, with one state as a glaring exception: New York. Republicans won just over half (17 of 33) of the open seat contests during these years. The greater success of Democratic candidates in states won by the opposing partys presidential candidate was crucial to their ability to win a slight majority of Senate races during these years. RacetotheWH has in-depth predictions for every Governor, Senate and House Race, polling for the 2024 primaries, and a Bidens approval rating tracker. More than 200 Republicans who questioned or denied the 2020 election results have won in the midterms so far. Nevadas Senate race is rated a tossup by the Cook Political Report. Vance, a Republican and the Hillbilly Elegy author, is very likely to win Ohios Senate race, according to our estimates. v. t. e. The 2022 United States Senate election in Illinois was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Illinois . With neither party holding a clear advantage, control of the Senate will likely come down to a half dozen or so competitive contests in which the strengths and weaknesses of individual candidates could be crucial. The 2022 Missouri State Senate election took The GOP is still favored to hold open seats in North Carolina and Ohio, rated Lean Republican.. Louisiana the reason I will not put Louisiana in sure-shot Republican is Louisiana does have a record of voting Democrat in gubernatorial elections. The analyst who saw through 2022s red mirage has a Table 4 presents data on the 16 Senate contests in which the model predicted the wrong winner. Third, he would somehow have to obscure the rightward lurch he just went through in the current legislative session the six-week abortion ban, the permitless carry, the assaults on public education and diversity. Based on the fundamentals of state partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment, Republicans have a good chance to pick up at least a seat and take back control of the upper chamber. Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto faces a tough race against Republican Adam Laxalt. Maggie Astor From this video, its very clear that Joe Biden is going to go there. NV ) Create Your Own Map. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings. Republicans' late primary complicates their quest to oust Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan in the nation's smallest swing state. Four of the 6 contests that are expected to be very competitive are currently held by Democrats (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire) while the other 2 (North Carolina and Pennsylvania) are currently held by Republicans. Its my view that the energy that generated this anti-woke boomlet on the right is dissipating. Abortion clearly shifted the playing field in some of these places, and so did the MAGA extremism of some of the GOP candidates. Our model predicted that the Republican nominee would win the race by about 16 points, but Moore ended up losing to Jones by 1.6 points. . Our model currently predicts that Republicans have a 59.3% chance of controlling the Senate. As a rule, when the composition estimate is steady in the presence of new results, our forecast is more trustworthy. 2022 FiveThirtyEight Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight Cook Political Updates 2022 Senate Forecast Ron DeSantis tends to fare better against President Biden among college-educated Whites than Donald Trump does. U.S. House Calif. 3 R+3 36% Calif. 9 D+17 Follow along after polls close. Democratic incumbents (87%) and Republican incumbents (88%) were equally successful. To retain control of the House, Democrats must win 46 of these seats (after accounting for the races the parties are expected to win most easily). Lazaro Gamio If Republicans win all of the races where they are currently leading by two points or more, theyll take control of the House. He's happy to chat about weather forecasting too. Maggie Astor We'll always be transparent about why we're making a certain rating. Web1 Predictions. Follow the latest election results here , Ga. 2 References. The most competitive races, with predicted margins of under 5 points, are expected to be in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. Its about 15 months for the mid-term elections in the United States. , Senator Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire was re-elected, holding on to one of Democrats most vulnerable seats in a tight contest for Senate control. Alicia Parlapiano Democrats are hoping to pick up seats in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Ohio, while Republicans have pinned their hopes on races in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. Rosenberg was vindicated when Democrats vastly overperformed expectations last year. Similarly, Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan is narrowly ahead of GOP candidate Don Bolduc in New Hampshire, though Bolduc is within striking distance. Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto faces a tough race against Republican Adam Laxalt. Weve come out on the other side of covid. Another 15%, about 5 per election cycle, were decided by a margin of less than 5 points. Current Senate On Monday, we will launch our Georgia Senate Runoff Predictions. The outcomes of the races in these three states will decide the balance of power in the Senate. Based on current events and the understanding that senators are elected by the states popular vote rather electoral districts, I will make my predictions. All 3 predictors had highly significant effects, with state presidential partisanship having the strongest influence. As of now, its considered a toss However, Republicans are also defending seats in Ohio and Wisconsin, in which their predicted victory margin is just over 10 points, indicating that these seats could potentially be in play. Senate Election Forecast 2022: Ratings, Predictions & Key Races Advertisement The Senate Remains a Toss-Up Last updated Nov. 6, 2022, 9:19 p.m. Vance won Ohio handily even as almost every part of the state voted more for Democrats than they did in 2020. 1.2 Close races. Janet Mills of Maine. Nov. 8, 2022, Kentucky, a solidly red state, reelected Rand Paul to the Senate. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin's battleground seat got slightly easier in redistricting, but the GOP thinks it can oust her with a national tailwind. All rights reserved. Polls are now closed in Hawaii. Heres how they performed when compared with the 2020 presidential candidates. Possibly. He's happy to chat about weather forecasting too. Steve Shepard, our chief forecaster, has settled on four core principles Box 400806 Charlottesville, VA 22904. Senate 2022 Election Forecast Latest Predictions Table 5: Model predictions for 2022 Senate elections. Remember me? Officials say the timing of results will depend on how many people return their ballots at the last minute on Election Day. Republicans have won in four of five New York tossup seats, and the Republican candidate is ahead in the fifth. Everyone covered the Democratic Party being in a defensive crouch last year. , Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, defeated Doug Mastriano, a Trump-backed election denier, in the race for Pennsylvanias governor. Gov The estimates for each race are based on the votes reported so far, how those places have voted in previous elections and the results of demographically similar places where votes have been counted. . Lazaro Gamio I think this is work thats not done. Independent variables were the Democratic margin in the current or most recent presidential election in the state, incumbency status (coded as +1 for Democratic incumbent, 0 for open seats, and -1 for Republican incumbents), and election type (-1 for Republican midterm, 0 for presidential, and +1 for Democratic midterm). The 2022 Missouri State Senate election took place on November 8, 2022, as part of the biennial 2022 United States elections. Democrat Katie Hobbs vs. Republican Kari Lake is one of the marquee races of the 2022 midterms. In Wisconsin, Senator Ron Johnson, a Republican, is up for re-election against Lt. Gov. ADHD is an illness, not a lifestyle. Based on the fundamentals of state partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment, Republicans have a good chance to pick up at least a seat and take back control of the upper chamber. , Greg Landsman, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Ohios First Congressional District. Nov. 8, 2022, If Democrats hold onto two seats leaning their way, they will need to win three additional tossup seats to maintain control of the Senate. Little to minimum campaigning would be required to secure a win for the following states: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont and Washington. Given the uncertainty of the overall results of the 2022 Senate elections, I decided to conduct a seat-by-seat analysis of all 174 Senate races since 2012 to see what factors have influenced the results of these contests. Forecasting the 2022 Midterm Election with the We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. Senate While Democrats won 94% of contests in states won by the Democratic presidential candidate, Republicans won only 86% of contests in states won by the Republican presidential candidate. The Associated Press has not yet called the race. We use early returns and polling data to estimate in real time the outcome of the elections for Senate and House control. Web2022 United States Senate elections 2020 November 8, 2022 December 6 ( Georgia runoff) 2024 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate 51 [a] seats needed for a Here are the results that mattered most for abortion access. Toggle Predictions subsection 1.1 Statewide. Several other special elections held concurrently with the general election are included, as well as the 2017 Alabama Senate special because it was only contested once during the 2018 cycle the seat was next contested as a regular election in the 2020 cycle. Two of the biggest discrepancies between actual and predicted vote margins involved the same candidate: West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin. We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. Jennifer Rubin: Tammy Baldwin has picked the lock on split-ticket voters. In the current 50-50 Senate, only 6 members represent states that voted for the opposing partys presidential candidate in 2020 3 Democrats (Ohios Sherrod Brown, West Virginias Joe Manchin, and Montanas Jon Tester) and 3 Republicans (Maines Susan Collins, Wisconsins Ron Johnson, and Pennsylvanias Pat Toomey). We rated every race in play in 2022. Lazaro Gamio Lazaro Gamio In Virginia, the performances of Democratic incumbents in the 2nd and 7th districts may offer early indications of how the party will fare in House races overall. The party that wins two of the Figure 1: Scatterplots of seat change by predicted seat change in House and Senate midterm elections, 1946-2018 Source: Data compiled by author Conditional forecasts for the 2022 midterms Much is riding on the 2022 midterm elections: the fate of President Joe Bidens agenda, leadership in state capitals across the country and a potential 2024 comeback by former President Donald Trump. In a previous article in the Crystal Ball, I examined the outlook for the 2022 House and Senate elections at the national level based on the generic ballot forecasting model. In contrast, predictions for races with predicted margins of 10 points or more were correct over 95% of the time. The reason we need to do what youre describing which is to go into places that werent available to us before is that we need this victory to be as big as possible. fresh out of the oven. Meanwhile, Republicans are in the hunt in Colorado and Washington State though both are rated Lean Democratic. It would take a larger GOP wave than is currently apparent for Democratic Sens. For example, in the 2012 Indiana Senate election, the Republican candidate was favored by just over 7 points but the Democratic candidate won by almost 6 points. Were getting results from five states where voters are deciding whether to legalize marijuana. . Explore the full list of features on our site map. Nov. 8, 2022, Republicans are favored to win the open Senate races in North Carolina and Ohio, but if Democrats have a better-than-expected day, these are two places we might see evidence of it. Republicans have flipped four House seats in New York, two districts on Long Island and two in the Hudson Valley. Representative Tom Malinowski, a second-term incumbent, conceded his race for re-election to his Republican opponent, Tom Kean Jr. Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker are on a November collision course in the most closely divided state of the 2020 presidential election. There is also an unexpectedly competitive Senate race in Utah between Senator Mike Lee, a Republican, and Evan McMullin, an independent. Overall, incumbents won 87% of their races. Nov. 8, 2022, The early vote in Arizona has been strong for Democrat Mark Kelly, but we expect a good portion of the in-person and late-counted mail vote to favor Blake Masters. The Cook Political Report has updated its 2022 Senate outlook, with four races seen as more competitive than earlier in the year. Contact Steve at [emailprotected]. It's one thing to tell you who's likely to win POLITICO's Election Forecast also tells you why. We got to 59 percent in Colorado in 2022. Stacey Abrams has conceded to Brian Kemp, the Republican governor of Georgia. 2022 United States Senate election in Illinois 2022 Representative Sean Patrick Maloney has conceded defeat to Mike Lawler, a first-term Republican state assemblyman. An edited and condensed version of our conversation follows. Republican candidates won 83 out of 170 contested Senate races between 2012 and 2020, but the prediction model indicates that they should have won 91. Source: Data compiled by author. Ipredictelections.. Its giving Yesli Vega, the Republican candidate, an edge over incumbent Abigail Spanberger, though this could be temporary. All rights reserved. Mail voting in 2020 contributed to longer wait times for results. Maggie Astor John Fetterman, a Democrat, and Dr. Mehmet Oz, a Republican. Lazaro Gamio Given the narrow size of recent Senate majorities, that underperformance is quite significant. . Nov. 9, 2022, More than 210 Republicans who questioned the 2020 election have won seats in the U.S. House and Senate and in state races for governor, secretary of state and attorney general, according to results as of 12 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday. Wiley Nickel, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent North Carolinas 13th Congressional District. , The Hillbilly Elegy author and Republican J.D. If you would like to change your settings or withdraw consent at any time, the link to do so is in our privacy policy accessible from our home page.. The consent submitted will only be used for data processing originating from this website. Contact Steve at [emailprotected]. 2022 United States Senate elections Despite a difficult environment, Gov. The full forecaster analysis can be found here (subscription required). Michael Bennet and Patty Murray, respectively, to fall. Hi there. Is the challenger struggling to raise money? Maggie Astor WebPredictions for Every 2022 Senate Race by one of the Nation's Most Accurate Forecasters in 2020. Ron DeSantis winning the early vote in Miami-Dade County which voted for Hillary Clinton by +29 points just six years ago is yet another sign of growing Republican strength among Hispanic voters. You seem to be suggesting that to grow further, just campaigning on abortion rights and attacking MAGA extremism isnt enough: There has to be something more proactive and positive to really expand the coalition. If the two parties split those six seats evenly, Republicans will win a 51-49 majority. Ron DeSantis won re-election in Florida, cementing Republicans power in a state that was once a key battleground. The 2022 Senate Forecast uses a sophisticated model that includes polling, historic trends, and fundraising to create its projections. Rep. Ted Budd of North Carolina, a Trump-backed conservative, beat Cheri Beasley, a Democrat, to capture retiring Senator Richard Burr's seat. In order to estimate the contributions of state partisanship, incumbency, and election timing to the outcomes of Senate elections between 2012 and 2020, I conducted a multiple regression analysis with the Democratic candidates margin as the dependent variable. Lazaro Gamio I think its still yet unarticulated and undeveloped. Elissa Slotkin, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Michigans Seventh Congressional District. Its important that our goal is not just to win the election but to have it feel like a profound repudiation of MAGA. Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker are on a November collision course in the most closely divided state of the 2020 presidential election. Where Senate Candidates Outperformed Biden and Trump. Arizonas Senate race is a currently tossup, according to our estimates. , Brad Raffensperger, Republican, is re-elected as Georgias secretary of state. The red wave did not materialize, and election night ended with many close races that will be decided by mail-in ballots. Four counties all of which supported Trump in 2020 voted for Shapiro but chose Dr. Oz, the Republican, for the Senate. 465 Crestwood Drive P.O. Lt. Gov. Two findings stand out in this table. Theres no question that our orientation this cycle should be around geographic and demographic expansion. Nov. 14, 2022, With Senator Cortez Mastos victory in Nevada, Democrats will retain Senate control, even if Republicans win a run-off election in Georgia. These results suggest that Republicans have a slight edge in the 2022 Senate elections when it comes to potential seat swing based on the fundamentals in these races. State presidential partisanship was also a powerful predictor of Senate election results during these years, reflecting the increasing nationalization of these contests. Current House. However, this has become increasingly difficult, as partisan polarization has deepened. Voters in Kentucky narrowly rejected an amendment to the State Constitution that would have said there is no right to abortion in their state. Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia is one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the Senate. Lazaro Gamio Follow along here For that to be the case, Rosenberg must be right about his core idea: Despite pundits tendency to overestimate MAGA, its rise has given Democrats a major opening to expand their coalition. Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia, a Democrat, won a runoff election to defeat Herschel Walker, a Trump-backed Republican and former football star. NYT Graphics Nate Cohn Based on New York Times/Siena College polls in four states. Nov. 8, 2022, The shift to the right has been dramatic among counties in Florida reporting nearly all their votes. Christine Zhang Redistricting will change everything. Alicia Parlapiano Read more Miles Coleman, and Larry J. Sabato. The Associated Press has not called New Yorks race for governor but Gov. 2022 Election Forecast: Ratings, Predictions & Key Races In Indiana, a House race in the 1st district leans Democratic, but, if the seat were to flip, it could be an early sign of a red wave. WebTexas Senate: With Democrats on Defense, Lone Star State Is a Reach Jessica Taylor March 29, 2023 Members Only Senate Overview The Looming Senate GOP Primary Wars Jessica Taylor March 7, 2023 Members Only Michigan Senate Michigan Senate: With Slotkin Announcement, Democrats Look to Avoid Primary Jessica Taylor February 28, , Emilia Sykes, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Ohios 13th Congressional District. I've collected a few races I think you should keep your eyeon. Heres what the vote count could look like this year. Click here! These are our estimates for which party will win control of the Senate, and the estimated number of seats won by each party. 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. Republicans' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. In the case of the Senate, however, the results indicated that the outcome was likelier to be close to a standoff. The Times estimates the share of votes reported and the number of remaining votes, based on historic turnout data and reporting from results providers. Todays voting will decide the balance of power in Congress. Ohio. The latest Last updated Nov. 8, 2022 Our final forecast for the Senate is a toss-up, with Republicans slightly favored over Democrats. From an electoral point of view, the story here is consistent: Democrats have stoked the culture wars by getting more extreme on social issues and Republicans have used this to successfully cleave away a segment of both the non-college white vote and, more recently, the non-college nonwhite vote, Moving to the left may help galvanize the progressive base which is good! This finding reflects the increasing nationalization of Senate elections in the 21st century. Gov. . NYT Graphics The Associated Press has not yet called the race. Redistricting will change everything. Is the nations political realignment driving a state or congressional district from one partys column to the other? Can a moderate Republican keep holding on to a blue-trending suburban seat? We also have a Live Forecast for the House.if(typeof ez_ad_units!='undefined'){ez_ad_units.push([[728,90],'racetothewh_com-medrectangle-3','ezslot_3',639,'0','0'])};__ez_fad_position('div-gpt-ad-racetothewh_com-medrectangle-3-0'); We are using the Associated Press's election calls to take races off the board. The most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the country might be Rep. Mike Garcia, whose district north of Los Angeles voted for President Joe Biden by 13 points. 2022 Senate Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight This has to be the driving goal of the party this cycle. Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is seeking a third term in a district President Joe Biden won by 6 points in 2020 but now-Gov.